Matt Tamanini Matt Tamanini is the co-managing editor of Land-Grant Holy Land having joined the site in 2016.
College football is the greatest sport in the world because it has chaos pumping through its metaphorical veins. This entire sport, from the conference hierarchy to media rights deals to the College Football Playoff structure, is built to prop up the upper echelon, blue-blood programs, and yet weekly there is at least one upset that boggles the mind. Through the first six weeks of the 2024-25 season, chaos has reigned supreme as 20 of the preseason top-25 teams have already suffered at least one loss, and in two very, very special cases five losses (thank Woody for Kansas and Florida State).
So, with all of that tumult at the top of the sport, who can confidently claim to be the best team in the country? In three of the last four weeks, the Texas Longhorns have been the top-ranked team, but their best win this far is against a two-loss squad that is averaging fewer passing yards per game than Iowa, Old Dominion, and Navy. When you throw in the fact that their Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback has missed the last two and a half games, and unless the Horns blowout their rival Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry this weekend, I find it very difficult to see them remaining atop the college football polls come Monday.
That is because the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes are going on the road to take on the No. 3 Oregon Ducks in primetime at Autzen Stadium on Saturday. Not only will the winner of this game own the most impressive victory of the season, but they will cement themselves as the prohibitive favorite in the race for the national championship.
Heading into the game, both the Buckeyes and Ducks are doing fairly well in the title odds already. According to FanDuel, Ohio State is the definitive favorite at +290, with Texas in second at +450. Oregon is a little further back -- likely because of early-season issues with teams from the state of Idaho -- in fifth place at +1000. Obviously, if OSU wins, that will likely only improve their odds having cleared one of their major hurdles. Conversely, if the Ducks win, the same can be said for them. They will have beaten the top team according to Vegas and dramatically improved their chances at a Big Ten and national title.
But CFP championship odds are not truly a representation of who the best team is at any given moment; they factor in far more than just objective quality. They include strength of schedule, conference opponents, potential seeding, and many more factors in their proprietary special sauce. So, while it's nice that the Vegas bookmakers recognize the dominance that Ohio State has shown throughout the early season, their job is simply trying to make the most money possible, not identify a definitive top team in the sport.
Fortunately, they don't have to, because OSU and Oregon are going to do that for us on Saturday in the first-ever conference matchup between the two schools. With all due respect to Texas, beating this year's version of Michigan isn't going to do enough to convince me that you are legit, especially given decades' worth of erroneous "Texas Is Back" campaigns coming out of Austin and CFB talking heads. If UT can soundly handle Oklahoma and Georgia over the next two weeks, then we can talk, but until them, I don't buy it.
So, if it's not Texas competing with OSU and Oregon for the top spot, who is it? Penn State? You mean the James Franklin-coached team that nearly lost to Bowling Green? Pass.
What about Miami? They're 6-0 so far, that's gotta count for something. Sure, but remember what I said six sentences ago about Texas having to prove it after generations of hype leading to heartbreak and sadness for fans? Well, it goes double for The U. Also, they very well could have lost each of their last two games to decidedly average Virginia Tech (3-3) and Cal (3-2) teams.
So if those pretenders don't deserve to be the sport's top team in my estimation, do either the Buckeyes or Ducks actually warrant that distinction? Let's start with the underdogs.
Oregon started its season on about as rocky of ground as you could without losing, needing two fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat FCS Idaho 24-17. Then the next week, another team from the Potato State nearly pulled off the upset in Eugene. In that game, the Ducks were down 34-27 with 10 minutes remaining to Boise State but were able to string a couple of scores together to pull out the 37-34 win.
However, since then, Dan Lanning's team has figured out how to play far more like the squad that everyone anticipated coming into the season. They made a change at center and shuffled things around on the offensive line, and since moving on from the Idaho Duo, Oregon has averaged 484.67 yards per game against Oregon State, UCLA, and Michigan State. That has been significantly aided by the fact that UCF and Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel is completing passes at a startling 77.8% clip on the season, which leads the FBS. Oregon's performance over the last three weeks has moved them up to the No. 5 offense in SP+ rankings.
On the other side of the ball, the Ducks have the No. 10 defense allowing only 263.4 yards per game, and have the eighth-best graded unit according to Pro Football Focus.
While they are still clearly working to overcome some early season statistical stumbles, if Oregon is able to defend their home stadium and deliver Ryan Day's Buckeyes their first loss of the season, I don't think that there is any question that they would be worthy of being the top team in the country.
However, if the far more likely scenario plays out and the Buckeyes win in Autzen, then I would almost go ahead and recommend booking your travel to Atlanta for the CFP Title game on Jan. 20.
The Bucks have been statically dominant through their first five games. Ohio State is the only team in the country to rank in the top 10 of total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense. The Buckeyes are No. 1 nationally in the latter two categories allowing just 202.4 yards and 6.8 points per game. Now, admittedly, they have yet to face a dominant -- or even competent -- offense, but they have done exactly what you would expect against their schedule.
OSU is currently No. 2 in SP+ just 0.4 points behind Texas, and they come in first in defense and ninth on offense. They are also PFF's top-graded team in the country, for whatever that's worth. If the Scarlet and Gray can add a top-3 road win to their resume -- on top of the clear analytical advantages they have -- then I think it will be tough for anyone to argue against them being the best team in the country.
Personally, while I recognize that I am biased, the simple eye test shows how different this Buckeye team is from recent vintages. While there are certainly things that you would like to see improved and cleaned up, there is no single thing that feels like a fatal flaw, as there have been in recent years. Will Howard seems to be a guy in complete control of Chip Kelly's offense, the offensive line has been stellar and proved they were up to the challenge of an otherwise dominant Iowa front last week, and the defense is No. 2 in havoc percentage, even if they are not getting the sacks and TFLs that fans seem to demand.
If this team does what I expect it to on Saturday night, the conversation will go from "Ohio State has a great roster, but lacks the killer instincts needed to win it all," to "The Buckeyes are the Death Star and there are no X-wings in sight."
Whichever team walks out of Autzen victorious on Saturday night will undoubtedly deserve the No. 1 ranking and the moniker of the best team in college football.