Thanks to a clutch homer from Giancarlo Stanton and a strong showing from their bullpen, the Yankees earned a 3-2 victory in Game 3 of their ALDS with the Royals and now have an opportunity to close out the series Thursday with their ace on the mound.
Game 4 will repeat the pitching matchup of Game 1, with Gerrit Cole set to square off against Michael Wacha again.
Neither starter fared particularly well in the series opener, as they combined to allow six earned runs across nine innings of work in a 6-5 Yankees victory. It happened in a game that set the MLB playoff record for lead changes.
With a surprising over/under of 7.5 for Thursday night's Game 4 (8:08 p.m., TBS), oddsmakers aren't expecting a similar storyline.
You could argue Kansas City has three starters better than Wacha, making it less than ideal that he will make two starts in this series.
In his last four appearances, Wacha has an xFIP of 4.36 and a Stuff+ rating of 91.
He doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff, and the Yankees saw him well in Game 1, managing a .266 xBA and walking three times.
The Yankees were the best team in the league against right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 120.
Cole allowed seven hits in Game 1 and managed just four strikeouts. The Royals held a 65% hard-hit rate in that matchup off the right-hander and a .355 xBA.
Over his last five starts, Cole has been solid, but his underlying numbers aren't quite up to the standards of an ace, with a 3.93 xFIP and a Pitching+ rating of 106.
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In his last three appearances, he has allowed an 86.1% zone-contact rate and his swinging strike rate is down to 9%.
The Royals have been more effective offensively at home, where they hold drastically better plate-discipline numbers. They have hit to a wRC+ of 100 versus righties at Kauffman Stadium and put up a sixth-ranked K/BB ratio.
The bullpens are in slightly worse shape than they were in Game 1, and compared to Yankees Stadium, "The K" is a better ballpark for run creation.
As these starters look to bounce back after ugly performances in the opener, I believe this game should hold a higher total than 7.5.
Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-115, bet365)
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.