Training camp tradition demands that Chicago Bears rookies not only sing a song before a room full of veteran players but also announce their signing bonus before the performance.
When it was Caleb Williams' turn this year, he stepped up and proudly provided this introduction: "Caleb Williams, USC, signing bonus 25.5 million." The room went wild, with some players appearing to faint while others jumped out of their chairs in the meeting room at Halas Hall.
Williams' bonus was a record for NFL rookies, his reward for being the first overall pick in last year's draft. It is not expected to be the last time the 22-year-old quarterback signs a precedent-setting contract.
While Williams' performance was underwhelming in his NFL debut on Sunday, passing for only 93 yards in a 24-17 victory over Tennessee, he is entering the league with the reputation of being the Patrick Mahomes starter kit. What will his value be if he becomes one of the league's top quarterbacks, even if not quite the second coming of Mahomes?
History gives us a hint at his upside.
The Cowboys' Dak Prescott just moved the bar for quarterback pay, cajoling his way to a four-year, $240 million extension from Jerry Jones.
Prescott's $60 million average annual value beats the recent extensions received by Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love, which came with AAVs of $55 million.
Three years ago, the highest quarterback deal on the market was the 10-year, $450 million extension signed by Mahomes on July 6, 2020, which was timed to kick in after his rookie contract. There's a 33-percent jump from Mahomes' AAV of $45 million in 2021 to Prescott's $60 million in '24.
If the quarterback market climbs on that basis over the next three years, Williams could be positioned for an AAV of $80 million when it comes time to replace his rookie deal, set at four years, $39,486,058 by the collectively bargained scale.
That may seem unlikely but consider the cases of Burrow, Lawrence and Love.
Burrow was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft. He led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in his second season and set a precedent with the five-year, $275 million deal he signed on Sept. 9, 2023, at the start of his fourth season.
Lawrence was the first overall pick in the 2021 draft. He has not had as much success in Jacksonville as Burrow in Cincinnati yet he landed an identical five-year, $275 million extension last June, before his fourth season.
Love was the 26th overall pick in the 2020 draft. He was strictly on the practice squad in his first pro season and played behind Aaron Rodgers for two seasons before the Packers turned to him last season. He passed for 4159 yards, prompting the team to give him a four-year, $220 million extension in July.
In addition to Burrow, Lawrence and Love, five other quarterbacks (Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff) signed deals worth at least $212 million in the last two years.
Josh Allen (six years, $258 million) and Mahomes received more long-term security while setting the market. None of the later deals extend beyond five years, perhaps because the players and the agents want to benefit from the market's rapid appreciation.
Is it possible Williams could command a five-year, $400 million deal from the Bears when it's time for him to get a deal for market value?
The future contracts given Brock Purdy a year from now and C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson in 2026 seem set to continue the trend of double-digit growth. The contractual upside is immense if Williams is as good as advertised.