Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) warms up prior to an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz.
Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
The setup for two Christmas Day games means two games on Saturday in Week 16.
They'll be potential playoff previews.
Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs host C.J. Stroud and the AFC South champion Texans in the first game Saturday.
Then, it's Russell Wilson and the Steelers visiting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in a battle for the AFC North.
Pro Picks likes the favorites in both matchups.
Philadelphia (12-2) at Washington (9-5)
Line: Eagles minus 3
Jalen Hurts got Philadelphia's passing attack back on track and the Eagles had a drama-free week as wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each had 100 yards receiving and a score. If Washington plans to take away the pass, the Eagles just hand it to Saquon Barkley. The Commanders barely escaped New Orleans with a win and Jayden Daniels got knocked around last week, getting sacked eight times. Things could get ugly if Daniels doesn't get better protection.
BEST BET: EAGLES: 26-17
Jacksonville (3-11) at Las Vegas (2-12)
Line: Raiders minus 1
This game has more implications on the NFL draft. A victory would damage the Raiders' chances of landing the top pick. The Jaguars would pick sixth right now and would move into the top five with a loss.
UPSET SPECIAL: JAGUARS: 23-20
Denver (9-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
Line: Chargers minus 2 1/2
The Chargers are reeling after losing two straight, three of four and allowing 40 points last week. The offense has been leaning more on Justin Herbert's passing since running back J.K. Dobbins went down. The Broncos, behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix and a stingy defense, are moving closer toward their first playoff berth since winning the Super Bowl nine years ago. Los Angeles goes for a series sweep. The Broncos are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven games on the road and 5-0 ATS in their past five games overall.
CHARGERS: 23-20
Houston (9-5) at Kansas City (13-1)
Line: Chiefs minus 3
Mahomes plans to play with a mild high-ankle sprain as the Chiefs push toward a No. 1 seed in the AFC. Kansas City is coming off its first win by more than one score since Week 7. The Texans, who captured their second straight division title, are 6-6-2 ATS this season. The Chiefs are 6-8 ATS.
CHIEFS: 24-19
Pittsburgh (10-4) at Baltimore (9-5)
Line: Ravens minus 6
The Steelers are vulnerable against the pass and their passing game has been lacking without wide receiver George Pickens. Jackson and the Ravens have lost four in a row to Pittsburgh, but can move into a tie for first in the AFC North with a victory. The Steelers are 10-4 ATS this season, including 5-1 as an underdog. The Ravens are just 2-3-1 ATS as home favorites this season.
RAVENS: 23-18
Cleveland (3-11) at Cincinnati (6-8)
Line: Bengals minus 7 1/2
Dorian Thompson-Robinson replaces Jameis Winston as Cleveland's starting QB. The Bengals are wasting one of Joe Burrow's best seasons. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their past six games and have lost six straight road games. The Bengals are 15-5 ATS in their past 20 games vs. the Bengals.
BENGALS: 27-17
New York Giants (2-12) at Atlanta (7-7)
Line: Falcons minus 8 1/2
Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. replaces Kirk Cousins as the Falcons fight for a playoff berth. If Penix simply avoids turnovers -- Cousins has thrown eight picks in the past four games -- he'll be an upgrade. The Giants could have Drew Lock back as they continue their push for the No. 1 draft pick.
FALCONS: 24-16
Detroit (12-2) at Chicago (4-10)
Line: Lions minus 6 1/2
The injury-riddled Lions need to get through a game without losing another starter. They're still in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC but have no margin for error. Jared Goff became the first QB to throw five TD passes in a loss last week. The Bears have lost eight in a row and Caleb Williams looks defeated. The Lions are 6-0 straight up in their past six road games and 15-5 ATS in their past 20 games vs. division opponents. The Bears are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 home games.
LIONS: 33-17
Tennessee (3-11) at Indianapolis (6-8)
Line: Colts minus 3 1/2
The Titans are turning to Mason Rudolph at quarterback after benching Will Levis. The Colts begin a three-game stretch against opponents that currently have a .190 winning percentage combined. Indianapolis should finish with a winning record, but that probably won't be enough for a playoff berth.
COLTS: 23-17
Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at New York Jets (4-10)
Line: Rams minus 3 1/2
The Rams have won seven of nine to take control of their chances to win the NFC West. Matthew Stafford hasn't been sacked in the past two games and he's getting time to make plays. Aaron Rodgers is looking more like his old self for the Jets. It's way too late to save New York's season, but it could be a spoiler for other teams. Los Angeles has to be wary.
RAMS: 23-20
Minnesota (12-2) at Seattle (8-6)
Line: Vikings minus 3
Sam Darnold and the Vikings are hot on Detroit's trail for the NFC North title and the NFC's No. 1 seed. They're coming off a short week and face a tough challenge on the road. Seattle received good news on Geno Smith's injury and also could get running back Kenneth Walker back from a calf injury.
SEAHAWKS: 22-19
Arizona (7-7) at Carolina (3-11)
Line: Cardinals minus 4 1/2
The up-and-down Cardinals are still in the mix in the NFC West, but can't afford a letdown against Carolina. The defense has stepped up and Kyler Murray didn't throw a pick last week after tossing five interceptions in the previous three games. The Panthers bombed as a favorite last week. They have to do a better job protecting Bryce Young and the league's worst run defense needs to find a way to stop James Conner.
CARDINALS: 20-16
New England (3-11) at Buffalo (11-3)
Line: Bills minus 14
Josh Allen is on a mission in Buffalo. The Bills still have a shot for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and they won't take the Patriots lightly. Drake Maye is the only reason to watch New England.
BILLS: 33-16
San Francisco (6-8) at Miami (6-8)
Line: Dolphins minus 1
The 49ers are moving closer toward playoff elimination a year after losing in overtime in the Super Bowl. Miami's defense bounced back after getting torched by Rodgers and the Jets only to see the offense come up short against Houston. Tua Tagovailoa has to protect the ball better after four turnovers.
49ERS: 21-20
Tampa Bay (8-6) at Dallas (6-8)
Line: Buccaneers minus 4
Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are clicking and the Buccaneers have won four straight to take control of the NFC South. They have to be wary of the Cowboys, especially Micah Parsons.
BUCCANEERS: 24-17
New Orleans (5-9) at Green Bay (10-4)
Line: Packers minus 14 1/2
Jordan Love has thrown no picks in the past four games and the Packers are locking in for the playoffs. The Saints have no chance of pulling off a massive upset.
PACKERS: 30-13
Last week: Straight up: 13-3. Against spread: 12-4
Overall: Straight up: 156-68. Against spread: 123-98-3.
Prime-time: Straight up: 37-13. Against spread: 27-22-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 9-6. Against spread: 8-7.
Upset Special: Straight up: 8-7. Against spread: 8-7.
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