November 4, 2024 -- (Maple Hill Syndicate) As an investor and stock-market columnist, I have many successes and plenty of failures, too. One of my shortcomings is that I pay too little attention to momentum.
My gut instinct when a stock rises 200% or more is to suspect it will fall back to earth. That's often wrong, because market leaders are frequently doing something right.
This year, Summit Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:SMMT) leads the parade of winners among large stocks (those with a market value of $10 billion or more). It's up 628% through Nov. 1.
Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) is second, with a 333% gain. Next come AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ:APP) at 310%, MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) at 264%, and Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) with a 213% gain.
Here are a few thoughts about these top-performing stocks.
Summit Therapeutics
Summit Therapeutics jumped into the large-stock ranks this year, septupling on hopes for its new cancer drug ivonescrimab. The company's co-CEO Mary Zanganeh, an immigrant from Iran, became a billionaire.
Her co-CEO, Bob Duggan, had already been a billionaire for a decade, based on his previous drug-development work.
Ivonescrimab, is in Phase 3 clinical trials (the final stage) in the U.S. It has already been approved for use in China. The company hopes it can be used to treat cancer of the lungs, kidneys and breasts.
The drug was developed by Akeso, a Hong Kong company. Summit paid $500 million to license it, and will pay up to $4.5 billion more if certain financial goals are met.
Summit has no revenue yet. Its market value as of Nov. 1 is $14 billion.
Carvana
Retail investors are fascinated by Carvana, which sells used cars online and delivers them from buildings that resemble giant vending machines.
Carvana stock delivers thrills and chills. In 2021 it hit an all-time high of $376. The next year they plunged to less than $4. Now it has bounced back to about $229.
Short sellers love to bet against Carvana. As of mid-October, they had sold short more than 13 million shares, or about 11% of all the stock outstanding.
The numbers seem to support the short sellers' view. Carvana's debt is 10 times the company's net worth. And the stock sells for 102 times the company's profits a bloated ratio in my book.
AppLovin
Based in Palo Alto, California, AppLovin provides software for mobile app developers. It has listed Amanotes, CommerceBear, Kolibri Games, Music World Media, Ubisoft and Zynga among its customers.
This is a growth market, but growth has slowed a bit, according to EMarketer. The information firm says that the average smartphone used installed about 18.5 apps in 2023, down from about 21 in 2020.