Latest forecast for Friday and Friday night's minor snow/rain event for NJ, as of Thursday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)
The past few days have been very nice. Bright skies, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near 60. A nice change of pace from December's chilly start.
Well, New Jersey's weather is about to turn more December-ish again. We're not going to see 50s and 60s again for quite a while.
Step one is the return of colder air. That happens with a chilly breeze on Thursday.
Then things could get interesting on Friday, as a pair of storm systems drives in a chance of snow and rain showers. Light accumulations are a good possibility for inland New Jersey.
And then the first weekend of winter turns frigid. Statewide temperatures will likely be stuck below freezing for 48+ consecutive hours, making it one of the coldest stretches of the entire year.
We are keeping an eye on the Christmas forecast too. But honestly, mid next week is a hot mess right now.
After a wet Wednesday evening, rain exited the New Jersey coast early Thursday morning. You may still encounter some wet roads through the early commute, battling some mist and spray in the process.
The inevitable infusion of colder air is running a little later than I expected. As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), temperatures have only just started to drop off. So Thursday morning begins with temps near 40 degrees. Those thermometers will dip a little bit through late morning, before recovering to the lower-mid 40s in the afternoon.
Wind speeds will likely be in the "breezy" category for much of the day, occasionally popping above 20 mph. That will add a little blustery characteristic to the air. We are back to bundling up.
Early sunshine will give way to clouds later on. Thursday looks dry, aside from a late-day flurry.
Thursday night stays quiet too. Under mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures will dip to around the freezing mark, in the lower 30s.
Let me be crystal clear right off the bat: Friday is not a major winter storm. Not even close. It might get a little bit inclement and slippery as snowflakes and raindrops move in. But travel impacts should generally remain minor across the Garden State.
This double storm system setup is comprised of a clipper system to the northwest interacting with a coastal low developing just off the Jersey Shore. It is complicated. And potentially precarious, given the chance for overperformance and heavier-than-expected snow bands.
In order to accurately and easily describe how Friday and Friday night will play out, let me break the state into three distinct regions:
North Jersey (above I-78)
Friday morning's commute will just be cloudy. Scattered snow showers may develop from midday through the afternoon hours, followed by one last push of light snow at night. Snowfall will generally be light, with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation likely here. There is a good chance for overperformance -- a heavy snow band could produce 3" or 4" over a very localized area. HIgh temperatures on Friday will reach the mid 30s or so. (Yes, that is cold enough for snow to fall and stick.) Low temperatures Friday night will dip to around 30 degrees.
Inland Central & South Jersey (below I-78 and down the I-295 corridor)
Friday morning's commute will just be cloudy. Scattered snow and rain (wintry mix) showers may develop from midday through the afternoon hours. One last push of all snow is possible at night. Precipitation will be on the light side. Light snow accumulation is a possibility, on the order of a healthy coating to 1 inch. If a heavier snow band sets up, snowfall totals could be driven higher over a very localized area. High temperatures on Friday will reach about 40 degrees. Low temperatures Friday night will dip to around 30.
Southern & Coastal Counties
Friday morning's commute will just be cloudy. And then scattered rain showers will probably develop from midday through the afternoon hours. As temperatures drop Friday evening, one last push of snow (or wintry mix) is possible through the overnight hours. Precipitation will be on the light side, with less than a quarter-inch of total rainfall. A dusting or coating of snow accumulation is possible by Saturday morning. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the mid 40s. Low temperatures Friday night will dip to around 30.
There are some forecast models that keep snow showers over New Jersey through Saturday morning. And keep in mind, if we do see those light snow accumulations, it could lead to slick travel conditions for the first half of Saturday too.
The bigger weather story for this weekend is the cold. Get ready to shiver, New Jersey.
Saturday will be both cold and windy, with potential wind gusts to 30 mph. With high temperatures only in the lower 30s (and thermometers likely falling through the afternoon), the cold air is going to have a big bite to it. Wind chills ("feels like" or "apparent" temperatures) will be stuck around 20 degrees for the duration.
Saturday should be dry, other than early snow showers and maybe a flurry later on. Skies will be partly sunny.
The coldest day of the week. And possibly one of the coldest of the year/season.
Expect widespread teens Sunday morning. And then highs only in the 20s -- the entire state of New Jersey may very well stay below freezing all day.
Luckily, winds will be considerably lighter, so we do not have to talk about the dreaded wind chill calculation.
Sunday will stay bright and sunny. And the air will be incredibly dry.
Everybody has been asking about the big Christmas forecast, of course. (Christmas Eve is Tuesday, Christmas Day is Wednesday.) And I have to tell you -- the long-range forecast is a hot mess. Unfortunately, forecast confidence is still exceptionally low at this time.
I can tell you that Monday stays cold, in the 30s at best. And then temperatures moderate, likely into the 40s for Christmas.
Model guidance has hinted, on-and-off, about a storm system signal in the Eve/Day time frame. But exactly when, where, and what falls from the sky is very much in question. I am keeping hopes for a White Christmas alive for now. At the same time, it could turn into a Wet Christmas. Or a Nothing Christmas. I'm not writing off any possibilities here just yet.
Now because of that low confidence Christmas situation, I put practically zero stock in what could come after that. But notably, both the GFS and Euro models put a significant storm system over New Jersey in the closing days of the year, Sunday 12/29 to Monday 12/30. Those models run independently of each other -- so when they say the same thing, it warrants a raised eyebrow.
Whether that potential storm system manifests as heavy rain, heavy snow, both, or neither? Who knows. Just something to watch through the holiday week.