MVP candidates go toe-to-toe at Paycom Center tonight when Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder.
My Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions expect both players to put on a show in this early-afternoon showdown. Read my NBA picks to see why you should bet on both guys to stuff the stat sheet.
My best bet
Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Who else but Joker, right? The reigning MVP made history on Friday night when he provided the NBA's first 30-20-20 game in a thrilling 149-141 overtime victory against the Suns. Friday's performance marked Nikola Jokic's 29th triple-double of the season, and he's reached that mark in just 57 appearances.
Historical context and legacy implications are important in setting the stage for this prop pick. With 18 games to go, Jokic needs only two more triple-doubles to tie Wilt Chamberlain for most in a single season by a center.
He's currently on pace to become just the third player in league history to average a triple-double for an entire season, and he would be the first non-guard to accomplish that feat. If his current averages remain steady, Jokic could also become the only player to finish Top-3 in points, rebounds, and assists in a single season.
Since 2019-20, Jokic has logged 18 games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and posted a triple-double in seven of them. That's good for 38.9% of his appearances against OKC and his second-most triple-doubles against one opponent behind only the Pelicans. In that span, Jokic has averaged 24.1 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.2 dimes.
This season, Jokic has posted a triple-double in both matchups with the Thunder, and he'll get another favorable draw against OKC's generous interior defense. Over the last seven games, the Thunder have allowed opposing centers to average 24.8 points, 16.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
Jokic has posted 13 triple-doubles on the road compared to 16 at home this season, but he's reached the statistical milestone in two of his last three outside of Ball Arena. I expect him to play at his best against a familiar opponent with all eyes on this clash of MVP candidates.
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The Thunder have cashed the Over in 25 of their last 36 games for +14 units and a 35% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.