Gout cases are expected to increase by more than 70% by the year 2050, emphasizing the need for targeted management and prevention strategies, according to study results published in The Lancet Rheumatology.

To target the current and future needs of the population, it is necessary to quantify the burden and pattern of gout cases by age and sex and make predictions for the future. Therefore, researchers utilized data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) from 1990 to 2020 to assess the global, regional, and national prevalence and trends associated with gout while predicting prevalence up to the year 2050.

Cases of physician diagnosed gout were identified from 131 sources within the GBD database and included patients from 35 countries. Years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gout were estimated and results were stratified based on age, sex, and geographic location.

In 2020, there were an estimated 55.8 million people living with gout globally: a 150.6% increase from estimates in 1990. The global age-standardized prevalence rate for gout was 659.3 per 100,000 population, representing a 22.5% increase from 1990. Men were associated with a prevalence rate that was 3.26 times higher than women, with rates of 1030.8 and 316.4 per 100,000 population in 2020, respectively.

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Our findings highlight the need to focus on the prevention and management of gout as the population ages, especially among males.

The highest prevalence rates were found in high-income North America (1719.8 per 100,000 population), Australasia (1424.4 per 100,000 population), and southern Latin America (926.0 per 100,000 population). From 1990 to 2020, the largest increases in age-standardized gout prevalence were found in high-income North America (76.6%), Australasia (32.3%), and Andean Latin America (30.4%).

Gout accounted for an estimated 1.73 million YLDs globally in 2020, with the highest rates found in high-income regions. The age-standardized YLD rate was 20.5 per 100,000 population, representing a 22.0% increase from 1990.

High body mass index (BMI) and kidney dysfunction were significant risk factors for gout, accounting for 34.3% and 11.8% of YLDs due to gout, respectively.

By 2050, global gout cases are projected to reach 95.8 million, representing a 72.6% increase from 2020. The highest age-standardized prevalence rate is projected to be in high-income North America (1780 per 100,000 population). The increase in gout cases is primarily driven by population aging and growth, with the largest contributions from Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa.

Study limitations include the paucity of data on gout prevalence in low- and middle-income countries, potential over/underestimates of gout prevalence in certain countries, and the use of high BMI and kidney dysfunction as the only risk factors.

The researchers concluded, "Our findings highlight the need to focus on the prevention and management of gout as the population ages, especially among males."

This article originally appeared on Rheumatology Advisor

References:

GBD 2021 Gout Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol. Published online July 8, 2024. doi:10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00117-6