As much of the country braces for some of the coldest weather of the season, the number of cold-related deaths in the U.S. has been rising since the late 1990s, new research shows.
Cold weather deaths more than doubled between 1999 and 2022, with the largest increases occurring after 2016 - when 31 people died, according to the data.
"There has been a rightful focus on heat in the context of global warming -- and many studies have uncovered large in heat-related deaths. However, there is emerging evidence that climate change is also associated with more extreme winter events," Michael Liu, the research's lead, explained in a Thursday social media post.
The findings were published Friday in the journal JAMA Network.
The authors used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to analyze death certificates in which cold was recorded as either an underlying or contributing cause. There were more than 63 million deaths between 1999 and 2022 and more than 40,000 had cold recorded as an underlying or contributing cause of death.
They noted that they may have undercounted the deaths, because of a lack of data.
There was a 3.4 percent annual increase in the cold-related mortality rates over the years included in the research. Men had a higher rate of cold-related deaths than women.
Liu noted while nearly all groups saw significant increases, deaths were highest among Black, American Indian and Alaska Native adults and people over the age of 75. Researchers noted that older adults are more vulnerable because of a prevalence of chronic conditions and a limited ability to maintain a stable body temperature and cited structure risk factors for Blacks, American Indians and Alaska Native Americans.
The increase, they say, warrants public health interventions and improved access to warming centers for vulnerable populations.
In recent years, U.S. death rates in winter months have been 8 to 12 percent higher than in non-winter months, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Death rates have been generally higher in rural areas.
"These findings should not mitigate the urgency of global warming and its health implications, but rather a reminder to not forget about also protecting our communities and vulnerable populations from cold exposure during this winter season (e.g. access to warming centers)," said Liu.
More frequent extreme winter weather events fueled by climate change could be a potential catalyst for the increase, in addition to other factors like homelessness and substance abuse.
The coldest air in nearly two years is settling into the eastern US and Northeast this weekend. New York City has implemented a Code Blue, which is issued when the temperature drops to 32 degrees or less between 4 pm and 8 am.