All eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani when he comes to the plate against San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish. Ohtani has gone 1-for-8 with just a single and three strikeouts in his career against Darvish, and the Padres right-hander pitched a gem in Game 2 while holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to just three hits through seven innings of one-run ball.
That said, I can't turn down a hitter of Ohtani's caliber at this price on his total bases prop. Ohtani finished the regular season slashing .320/.390/.646 while clubbing an NL-high 54 homers and smashing 38 doubles.
His batting numbers ticked up at home, where he slugged .675 and he thrived with the platoon advantage, slugging .717 against righties like Darvish. The Dodgers superstar finished the regular season on an incredible tear, slashing .376/.436/.776 with 97 total bases in his last 30 games.
Darvish had a 3.31 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts this year, although he missed three months due an injury followed by a personal leave from the team. His peripheral numbers were less impressive though with his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and ground-ball rate ranking in the Bottom 40th percentile.
While Ohtani has poor numbers versus Darvish, eight at-bats isn't that a statistically significant enough number for me to fade him given all the other factors in his favor here. Especially since there's a good chance he'll be facing Padres relievers in the final few innings.